Tuesday, January 14, 2020

USDJPY Weekly Count

Hello readers, in this short post I will be laying out my expectations for currency pair USDJPY. We all know how terrible volatility has been in a lot of the FX market, especially anything US Dollar related. I posted a tweet the other day talking about how EURUSD volatility in 2019 has been the lowest in 47 years! The last time volatility was this low the following year we saw a monster move, the biggest move in the last 47 years. You shouldn't be shocked by that, we all know that expansion follows compression, and compression is exactly what we have in this market right now.

USDJPY as shown below had a very strong impulse higher from the 2011 low, traveling $50 or ~66% higher. That was the expansion and since the 2015 top we now have the compression. This makes perfect sense to me and I will attempt to explain it. The monster move from 2011-2015 was a motive wave meaning it was an impulse in the direction of the trend, one can clearly observe a 5 wave up sequence with perfect alteration. Wave 2 was very deep and sharp while wave 4 was shallow and sideways in a triangle, then the triangle expanded giving us our last leg up for a wave 5 with beautiful negative divergence. After a 5 wave sequence to the upside you should then get some sort of correction typically a ABC, you can see where I have wave A lower. Since the wave A low we have what looks like a compression pattern in a B wave triangle (Triangles occur in wave 4's and wave B's). As of now I believe we have a small degree wave C, typically in a triangle, wave C is the most complex and annoying which has played out in a flat so far. I fully expect this triangle to continue filling out as shown in the chart to complete black B.

After black B is over one can expect swift reaction lower that most likely will terminate since triangles are termination patterns. The targets for this expansion are labeled below and in reality if we break the 78.6% retracement level then the odds of this chart being correct dramatically decrease.

Remember this is a weekly chart, this will take time to play out and I will continue to update it as price continues, but just be aware that the trend is up and therefor I am looking for buying opportunities. Will this chart play out exactly as I have it shown? Probably not since it is such a large time frame but what I know is I am looking for areas to go long on any clue of the next large leg higher happening, while managing my risk with trade invalidation levels. As traders it is not our job to call turns it is our job to capture price impulses, and my typical goal is to capture 60% of the move. If I can capture 60% of a move then to me that is a grand-slam, I will follow it up with some whiskey and a thick ribeye steak. 

Thank you everyone for reading and let me know if you have any questions or comments! 


Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Proof Is In The Pudding

First off the purpose of this post is not to troll anyone at all, it is to clearly cite what I have been expecting, what actually happened, and how I feel at this current moment. I do not mean any hate to any other traders at all.

I want to lay out my forecast for the last couple of years so you guys think I'm somewhat credible :). Essentially it goes like this, back in 2017-2018 I was saying Gold was likely in an Elliott Wave triangle that would break up and see ~$1600 or so, from there it would complete a major degree B wave and then to expect major downside lower into 700-800. Yes I know it sounds like Henrik but remember he was calling for 700-800 back in 2017-2018.

But as they say the proof is in the pudding! Here are some photos below.

I do not like to troll other traders I mean trading is F****** hard! I am just pointing out a single conversation from over a year ago showing what I thought then and why!

Here is the same charts I have been posting lately showing the triangle I have been speaking of for so long and me targeting $1600.

This one below is from a recent blog post saying get ready for a blue wave 5 which has played out.

Alright alright that's enough of that, lets get back to present time and what I think happens in the future.

As you can clearly see above I have been looking for ~1600 for quit some time and we are there, now what? Does that huge sell off to sub 1k finally start? I have no freaking idea! What I know right now is in the chart below we have a beautiful three wave move labeled (A)(B)(C) in black. A three wave move is typically a corrective pattern that typically travels to a 100-123.6% extension. I do not have it shown on this chart but take my word that it did or draw it out from the November 2015 to the July 2016 high back to the August 2018 low. This (ABC) now gives us what we would see is the red circle B wave of a larger ABC lower, labeled in red. If I am right we should be starting the red C wave to around mid 700s soon.


Silver, GDX, GDXJ, and TLT have not made higher highs for wave 5's like gold has. Notice on the chart below the blue wave 5 that is a perfect 5 up. Silver, miners, and bonds have not seen higher highs yet and that is throwing me off a little. Do they have too? No not necessarily they can have failed 5ths, but I would be shocked. At this moment in time I am still expecting those three to see higher highs in price to complete the wave 5 but want to warn that now it can get very risky! Gold has already seen 5 up and weakness COULD happen anytime. Typically after a 5 wave move like we just saw in gold you get a retracement, for this move I would say between the 38.2%-50% levels BUT if we are going to sub 700 we will obviously break through those fibs.

I know this is all confusing but what I am trying to say is risk long has just gotten a lot riskier in the past couple days, doesn't mean it can't happen all I am saying now is take partial profits when you can don't be a PIG. 

Like I said I am not sure if we are putting in a major top here or not Im not even going to pretend to know, all I will do is be honest, it definitely is possible! I will continue to monitor this situation very closely and update in the coming days when I have a better feel as to what will happen. I hope to have a video out this weekend regarding metals because it will be WAYYYYY easier for me to get my point across as to what exactly I am talking about and will be looking for, so please look for that in the coming days.

Thank you so much -- Nassar

Monday, January 6, 2020

Updated Metals Thoughts

Hello everyone, first I want to thank everyone for the support of the blog so far. I have received some very nice DM's and tweets and I am happy many of you are enjoying as much as I have been.

The daily candle on Gold and Silver today is very thought provoking you have Silver that basically printed a doji and gold with a shooting star. I do not like trading candlestick patterns I would say the only candles I will even take into consideration is a hammer or shooting star but even then they NEED confirmation. Confirmation of a shooting star is when the proceeding candle's high must stay below the high of the shooting star and then proceed to close below the close of the shooting star. Ideally the candle that proceeds a shooting star gaps down or opens near the prior close and then trades lower on heavy volume. If these things do not happen then the shooting star is then marked irrelevant.

What happens if it does become confirmed tomorrow? Then we get a some weakness which in my opinion is extremely healthy. People today was the 9th day in a row of a green close, price needs a break! What do you think this is US Indexes? LOL.......My sentiment indicators on Gold and Silver are both showing extremely over bullish, and these indicators do not stay over bullish very long.
Typically when they get to this point you can expect price to pause and go sideways or start to trade lower. As of now I feel very strongly that any price action weakness is only temporary and I definitely do not see this as a short opportunity for a swing trade.

As you can see from my previous posts I have been looking for a major degree wave 5 and within that major degree wave 5 I think we have a smaller degree 5 up that is finishing/finished. In the chart below you can clearly see a valid 5 up sequence that follows all Elliott Wave guidelines. Right now price is sitting on the W2-W4 trend line which also happens to be weekly pivot. At this point my lean would be that price breaks down and continues to correct lower. I have some designated support areas with the lowest being 17.32, while price can go briefly below that and my sequence still be correct I prefer price to hold the black support box and the next leg higher start from that area.

P.S. If you want to make the chart larger just tap/click on it.

Thank you for reading have a great night -- Nassar

Saturday, January 4, 2020

Nailed It! Just Like Everyone On Twitter!

Nailed it, checkout the chart below. This chart is something I posted publicly on my old website in the blog section back in January 2019 so 12 months ago. I was stating how I was becoming more and more bullish miners and that we are due for a wave C higher that should break the wave A high. I also stated in the blog to be patient that I do not expect this to play out in a matter of days or months but rather 1 year. Here we are exactly 12 months later and we are almost complete with this wave C. 

Ok now that the bragging is out of the way it's time to get down to business. The chart below is the updated version pretty much the exact same thing but with some added labels for easy reference points. As I was expecting in Gold futures for the wave 4 to becoming to an end that obviously also applies to GDX, and it looks like it has. In my view I believe we are now in the wave 5 of C higher that should ultimately break the red horizontal line at $31.79 which is the previous A wave high. For a finishing 5th wave target as of now my rough estimate is $32.50-33.00 give or take a dollar. 

Notice how the peak in RSI was at the wave 3 high, this is textbook because wave 3's are the strongest of the wave impulse waves. This means when we do take out $31.79 I fully expect us to have a RSI divergence meaning the wave 5 high in price will have a lower RSI than the wave 3 RSI high. 

This wave 5 of C will likely take a few more weeks possibly even another 2-4 months to finish but I am expecting us to make new highs in metals in Q1 Q2 of 2020 and a top to be put in. Now I will not expand on my views of this potential top yet I will wait and see what we look like when we arrive. 

Thank you for reading and if you need to make the charts larger just click on them :)


Thursday, January 2, 2020

Slightly Higher High

Since my post last night Gold futures have made a slightly higher high, while Silver futures have not. Short term my view remains in tack, after today we now have increasing negative divergence and up against the upper channel. I am by no means suggesting a short trade from here, only a small pause and correction in price for a wave 4. Whether we do or don't makes no difference to me as I remain bigger picture bullish and for us to take out the 2019 high as discussed in my previous posts. Short term sentiment is also extremely over bullish in both Gold and Silver which also argues for some relief.

I remain long the PM sector by holding physical bullion and a handful of Gold/Silver mining names. Shorter term I am an active trade and do trade GC_F however you can bet I will not be shorting metals! I will be patiently waiting for the next dip to buy.

I believe it is very important to understand the instruments you trade as each instrument trades differently. From my own experience I will say a nuance of Gold and Silver that I find to be true is that they are both extremely trendy instruments. I have noticed that they trade like most FX pairs once they get going they can go much farther than you or I would usually expect. The take away from this observation would be to not fight the trend because you think you are some hot shot pro.

The chart below is weekly Gold futures, and it is looking very bullish! A bull flag is breaking up after a very healthy pause and correction. As you know I am looking for a wave 3 to come to an end here short term and for us to do a small wave 4 correction, I am wondering if weekly band will help contain price as resistance.

Thank you -- Nassar

Wednesday, January 1, 2020

Update On Gold-Short Term

Happy New Year!!

As you can see by my recent blog posts I have really been focusing on PM's. If you go back to the first post Click Here you will see that I was pointing out that I would prefer to see price hold the lower purple BB and that price was telling me we were coming into a swing low. As of now I think that swing low is set and the wave 5 I was referencing in my second metals post Click Here is likely underway. You should have a pretty good understanding of my thoughts bigger picture, but what about short term.

The chart below GC_F 4 hour chart shows I have a small 5 up in process, in theory this small 5 up is only the first leg of the larger degree wave 5 from my second post. We have a perfect hit of the 1.618% extension target for what looks like to me is a wave 3, also note short term negative divergence. This is telling me small wave 3 is likely complete and we should expect a correction in a wave 4. Judging by the depth of wave 2, I am expecting this wave 4 pullback to find support between $1503.80-$1513.40. In this wave 4 one should keep an eye out for a simple three down ABC or a triangle to take place in a sideways consolidation pattern. Also note where monthly pivot is at $1504 which is right where I expect the lowest support to be, nice confluence. Not to get ahead of myself because this is of course a working progress from my wave 4 targets I would then be expecting a 5th wave run up into the red box before the correction sequence lower correcting the price action from November 25th low to whenever this wave 5 finishes.

I will be paying close attention to the chart below. Orange line being Gold and candles being ZB (T-Bonds) you can see a very strong correlation between the two which lately has not held up. Eitherr Bonds or Gold is wrong, I am unsure as to which one but I will say even if Gold is wrong short term look at that beauty of a pattern on bonds, very nice bull flag/pennant.

Remember this post is only regarding very short term forecasts and analysis. If price deviates from my expectations in this specific post my long term view on metals will remain the same until I post otherwise. As always if you have any questions or comments feel free to post on my blog :)

Wish you a prosperous 2020 -- Nassar

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Gold Count

Good evening everyone, what a boring week so far!

This is my current weekly gold chart. Many of you know this is a chart I came up with around 1.5 years ago and its working out great! I wanted to drop this here to remind everyone this is what I continue to look for, and add a few comments.

As you can see I am not a gold $10,000 person but was a bull back in the 2017-2018 consolidation period. I said time after time that it was a temporary correction that will rally to $1600, we did just that! I believe we are in a major C wave right now and have one more leg up for a 5th wave to finish major C. A higher high wave 5 would give RSI great divergence as well for likely a great topping point and short opportunity. The blue wave 4 where we are at now may not be a finished yet, a lower low is extremely possible and I am perfectly okay with that, I would not want to see price break below $1400 for this setup to be valid.

I hope everyone is enjoying these short blog posts. The blog is is meant to give me a place to keep my work together and relevant for everyone to see. I encourage people to comment on any posts they have something to say, maybe your analysis/thoughts or even educational questions.

As always thank you - Nassar